This is an experimental indicator. Must be read as an informative indicator, not a scientific measure.
Color range interpretation âžž
Red = strong overprice;
Orange = slightly overprice;
Yellow = neutral;
Green = slightly underprice;
Blue = strong underprice.
The rainbow curve describes a demographic band, which, overlapped with the real price, evaluates the stage of the price cycle. A few notes and considerations:
The real price data is derived from an alternative formula, real price notes.
The rainbow curve is a trendline equation derived from the demographic curve (quadratic function).
The derived rainbow curve has been price-adjusted, in order to fit properly with the price pattern.
The central line (yellow) is the reference trendline, adding an equidistant band until it convers most peaks and troughs.
Peaks and troughs chart:
Red = peak years in the cicle; Blue = trough years in the cicle.
Equations chart:
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Data sources
Housing prices, from 1964 to 1984, have been extrapolated using the apparent cement consumption:
Link
Housing prices, from 1985 to 2006, according to Sociedad de Tasación (Access to data is under request, but can be seen in the linked publication):
Publication,
Link
Housing prices, from 2007 onwards, according to the notaries (Mapa > Select whole Spain > Más estadÃsticas):
Link. Previous statistical site, no longer running (Grupo 5 > Acto 501 - Compraventa inmuebles > Inmuebles en fincas urbanas, viviendas):
Link
Inflation data (Table: average inflation Spain (CPI) - by year):
Link
Population and projections according to INE (range of used population was that between 25 and 50 years old > Data used for the (n) year is that from January 1st of the next year):
Population consolidated,
Population projection
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