This is an experimental indicator. Must be read as an informative indicator, not a scientific measure.
Color range interpretation ➞
Red = strong overprice;
Orange = slightly overprice;
Yellow = neutral;
Green = slightly underprice;
Blue = strong underprice.
The rainbow curve describes a demographic band, which, overlapped with the real price, evaluates the stage of the price cycle. A few notes and considerations:
The real price data is derived from an alternative formula, real price notes.
The rainbow curve is a trendline equation derived from the demographic curve (quadratic function).
The derived rainbow curve has been price-adjusted, in order to fit properly with the price pattern.
The central line (yellow) is the reference trendline, adding an equidistant band until it convers most peaks and troughs.
Equations chart:
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Peaks and troughs chart:
Red = peak years in the cicle; Blue = trough years in the cicle.
Data sources
Housing prices, from 1964 to 1984, have been extrapolated using the apparent cement consumption:
Link
Housing prices, from 1985 to 2006, according to Sociedad de Tasación
(Access to data is under request, but can be seen in the linked publication):
Publication,
Link
Housing prices, from 2007 onwards, according to the notaries
(Grupo 5 > Acto 501 - Compraventa inmuebles > Inmuebles en fincas urbanas, viviendas):
Link
Inflation data (Table: average inflation Spain (CPI) - by year):
Link
Population and projections according to INE
(range of used population was that between 25 and 50 years old > Data used is from January 1st of the current year):
Population consolidated,
Population projection
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