(a) Annual evolution of home sales
- Purchasing-age population (PAP): home sales (bars); population between 25 and 50 years old (black lines); and housing inheritances (purple bars).
The PAP housing index draws two ceilings based on demographics. The higher one assumes that everyone at some point will buy a house individually, and the lower one assumes that everyone at some point will buy a house as a couple.
- If sales exceed the upper limit, could be interpreted as a bubble.
- If sales are below the lower limit, could be interpreted as a depression.
- If sales are in between the two ceilings, the market is in an optimal zone.
- PAP disaggregated: population of 30, 40 and 50 years old (colored lines).
(b) Quarterly evolution of home sales
- Left axis (bars): total number of home sales in each quarter.
- Right axis (line): housing price index.
The color indicates whether the number of sales is lower than the previous quarter (red) or higher (green). The black line represents the HPI price.
Data sources
- Population and projections according to INE (range of used population was that between 25 and 50 years old > Data used is from January 1st of the current year): Population consolidated, Population projection
- Home sales (Results > Annual > Dwellings transferred by type of acquisition > Sales): Link
- Housing Price Index: Link