Purchasing-age population (PAP): home sales (bars); population between 25 and 50 years old (black lines); and housing inheritances (purple bars).
The PAP housing index draws two ceilings based on demographics. The higher one assumes that everyone at some point will buy a house individually, and the lower one assumes that everyone at some point will buy a house as a couple.
If sales exceed the upper limit, it could be interpreted as a bubble.
If sales are below the lower limit, it could be interpreted as a depression.
If sales are in between the two ceilings, the market is in an optimal zone.
Quarterly evolution of sales
Left axis (line): housing price index.
Right axis (bars): total number of home sales in each quarter.
The color indicates whether the number of sales is lower than the previous quarter (red) or higher (green). The black line represents the HPI price.
Data sources
Population and projections according to INE (range of used population was that between 25 and 50 years old > Data used is from January 1st of the current year):
Population consolidated,
Population projection
Home sales (Results > Annual > Dwellings transferred by type of acquisition > Sales):
Link